SAN ANTONIO – The FOX Forecast Center is tracking the return of heavy rain to Texas and the potential for severe weather.

Beginning Wednesday, moisture from the Gulf will interact with an upper-level disturbance moving in from northern Mexico, focusing heavy rain over Texas – particularly south of the Interstate 10 corridor.

South Texas appears most at risk, with a Flood Watch issued for more than 1 million people from roughly Laredo to Victoria to Brazosport, including Corpus Christi and the Interstate 35 and 37 corridors. 

Some forecast models indicate 4-8 inches of rain could fall by Saturday, prompting NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center to issue a level 3 out of 4 risk for flash flooding across South Texas.

“Numerous flash floods likely with significant events possible,” the National Weather Service office in Corpus Christi noted in its Flood Watch, as the heavy rain threat will persist into Friday and Saturday as another system moves through. 

“And yes, this is going to be beneficial rain, but because we have a pretty significant drought going on in this part of the country, when you mix this much rain at a time with a pretty extreme drought, you can end up in a situation where flooding gets really bad in a hurry,” FOX Weather Meteorologist Ari Sarsalari said.

The first storm system, expected to be weaker, will bring the potential for scattered thunderstorms on Thursday. Instability will be limited, but a few stronger storms could develop in eastern Nebraska and Kansas near a northward-moving warm front, the FOX Forecast Center said. Additional storms may also pop up across West Texas in the afternoon.

By Friday and into the weekend, forecast models show increasing uncertainty in how the weather pattern will evolve. 

A stronger storm system may begin to take shape across the western U.S. before moving into the Plains. If this occurs, it could bring a more widespread severe weather threat, but details remain uncertain at this time.

WHY ‘HIGH RISK’ FLOOD DAYS NEED TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY 

In addition to the heavy rainfall threat, thunderstorms may also produce hail, damaging winds and lightning, which can be just as dangerous and unpredictable.

Texas drought making flood threat worse

Many parts of the region, including areas around Austin and San Antonio, have experienced a significant lack of rainfall since last year, resulting in drought conditions that range from unusually dry to exceptional.

Corpus Christi last reported a precipitation deficit of about 2.75 inches, while San Antonio was closer to 4 inches.

Due to the dry conditions, the ground may not be able to absorb the rainfall quickly enough, which could lead to dangerous flash flooding.

“Keep in mind when you have a drought, that ground is like concrete, and it’s not going to absorb as much as we need,” Sarsalari said. “But it’s a good thing in the long run. We’re at least starting to chip away at it.”

WHICH STATES ARE MOST AT RISK FOR FLOODING?

In areas that do flood, just a few inches of rushing water can knock a person off their feet and sweep a vehicle away.

In 2003, a Texas forecaster developed the “Turn Around, Don’t Drown” slogan after witnessing people venturing through the water of unknown depths in inland communities such as Austin and San Antonio.

According to the NWS, flash flooding is one of the deadliest weather-related killers in the U.S. every year, with about a hundred fatalities that are tied to sudden flooding events.