Miami, South Florida face serious flood threat fueled by tropical moisture

The Miami metro area and most of South Florida are under a Flood Watch through Tuesday morning, as heavy tropical moisture moves over the Sunshine state, bringing repeated rounds of rain. A Level 3 out of 4 flash flood threat is now up for parts of South Florida, including Miami and Fort Lauderdale.

MIAMI — The Miami metro area and most of South Florida are under a Flood Watch through Tuesday morning, as heavy tropical moisture moves over the Sunshine State, bringing repeated rounds of rain.

A Level 3 out of 4 flash flood risk has been issued for parts of South Florida, including Miami and Fort Lauderdale, as heavy rain has already begun to swamp the area. The Flood Watch covers areas from Naples to West Palm Beach and includes the Alligator Alley portion of Interstate 75.

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This graphic shows the flash flood threat for South Florida through Tuesday, May13, 2025.
(FOX Weather)

Orlando, in Central Florida, has seen more than 2.75 inches of rain since Sunday morning.

Rounds of storms will persist for South Florida through Monday. About 3-6 inches of rain is expected for most of the Miami metro area by Tuesday. Some pockets of the city could see as much as 8 inches, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.

“Take an ample amount of time to get to wherever you need to go,” cautioned FOX Weather meteorologist Kendall Smith.

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FILE - MIAMI, FLORIDA - APRIL 10: A rain squall passes over the skyline on April 10, 2023 in Miami, Florida. Reports indicate that there is almost $1.5 trillion of U.S. commercial real estate debt due for repayment before the end of 2025. The debt is causing concern for the banking sector that holds the loans. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

FILE – A rain squall passes over the skyline on April 10, 2023, in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Joe Raedle/Getty Images)

(Getty Images / Getty Images)

Daytime heating could bring severe storms to Florida Monday

In addition to steady rain, there is the potential for severe storm development Monday afternoon.

Daytime heating will play a key role in the development of any thunderstorms. If temperatures can rise enough, severe storms would be able to form and possibly produce damaging wind gusts and even a tornado.

That comes after the Florida panhandle was blasted by an atmospheric river over the weekend, including a possible tornado that damaged businesses and vehicles in Destin on Saturday.

Storms will gradually move east Monday. While the main front that’s responsible for bringing the wet weather will be off the Florida coast by Tuesday, tropical moisture from the Gulf will linger and could produce storms through Tuesday afternoon before dry weather returns.

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This graphic shows the severe weather threat for Monday, May 12, 2025.
(FOX Weather)

Rain will help ease Florida drought conditions

This rain will help improve Florida’s ongoing drought as the state transitions from its dry season into the wetter months.

According to the FOX Forecast Center, every major weather station in the Florida Peninsula is between 2 and 9 inches below average for the year.

Forecasters expect that there will be enough moisture to put a significant dent in those ongoing rain deficits.

“The fact that we have that deficit of about 12 inches (in the Miami metro area), we could easily erase that and then some, in just about 24 hours,” said Smith.

Daytona Beach, Melbourne, West Palm Beach and Naples are all experiencing their top-10 driest starts to the year on record.