Chicago amid increasing tornado threat across Midwest as severe storms erupt

Severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail and some tornadoes.

IOWA CITY, Iowa – Severe thunderstorms are expected Friday afternoon and evening across the Midwest to southern portions of the Great Lakes region, including Chicago and Milwaukee, accompanied by a risk for damaging wind gusts, hail and some tornadoes.

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A three-hour radar loop showing where showers and thunderstorms are ongoing. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings are indicated by a yellow box. Tornado Warnings are indicated in red boxes, while Tornado Warnings with a confirmed tornado are indicated in purple boxes. Flash Flood Warnings are indicated in green boxes, while Flash Flood Emergencies are indicated in pink boxes. Severe Thunderstorm Watches are indicated in yellow shading, while Tornado Watches are indicated in dark-red shading.
(FOX Weather)

The FOX Forecast Center said the tornado threat has been raised to a Level 3 out of 5 across southeast Iowa – including the Quad Cities area – and into far western Illinois, where a few tornadoes are expected to develop Friday evening. A level 2 threat extends east into Chicago.

Tornado Watches and Severe Thunderstorm Watches already cover part of the area into the evening. In addition to the tornado threat, damaging wind gusts to 70 mph are possible along with large hail.

A look at the severe storm threat in the central U.S. on Friday, July 11, 2025.
(FOX Weather)

This comes as the Plains have witnessed an unrelenting week of severe storms. On Thursday, the top wind gust of the day was 83 mph in Garden City, Kansas. A top hail report of 2 inches was recorded in Grand Detour, Illinois, and over 3 inches of rain fell in Rockport, Illinois, where a Flash Flood Warning was issued.

The FOX Forecast Center said more storms will develop across the Midwest starting mid-to-late afternoon. These initial storms will likely be supercells, posing a risk of hail and potentially a couple of tornadoes across parts of northern Missouri and southern and eastern Iowa into northern Illinois – including the Chicago metro area, and possibly far southern Wisconsin.

A look at the tornado threat in the Midwest on Friday, July 11, 2025.
(FOX Weather)

Damaging wind gusts should become the more predominant potential hazard as the storms congeal together into east/southeastward-moving clusters by evening.

On Saturday, the threat shifts into the Great Lakes region with a Level 2 out of 5 severe storm risk in place, as a smaller dip in the jet stream pushes east, the FOX Forecast Center notes. A cold front at the surface will slowly push east, with the parent low-pressure system sitting across Canada.

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A look at the severe storm threat in the central U.S. on Saturday, July 12, 2025.
(FOX Weather)

Hot temperatures and high humidity will increase instability into the afternoon ahead of this front, allowing for severe storms to develop. Damaging winds and hail will once again be a threat with these storms into the afternoon and evening on Saturday.

In addition to the severe weather threat, a mounting flash flood risk will evolve as rounds of storms work in tandem with copious atmospheric moisture to produce high rain rates in thunderstorms forming in this very unstable environment.

A look at the flood alerts issued in the central U.S. through Friday, July 11, 2025..
(FOX Weather)

The greatest risk for flooding is expected in a zone from Iowa and northern Missouri through northern Illinois, where a Level 2 out of 4 flood threat exists.

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