Above and beyond anything else, when Atlético Madrid host Barcelona at the Estadio Metropolitano on Wednesday (stream LIVE on ESPN+ at 3 p.m. ET) is a glaring opportunity for them to reach their first Copa del Rey final in 12 long years.

A monumental occasion in itself, particularly having lost so painfully to Hansi Flick’s league leaders at home a fortnight ago.

But, made no mistake, Atleti’s finely balanced semifinal second leg (the first leg finished 4-4) will unquestionably also be a referendum on head coach Diego Simeone, his recent record, and his Atlético Madrid future. At least for his employers and those hardline fans who look at his increasingly dismal big-match record and have sincere, important and understandable doubts.

Since the golden season of 2013-14, Atlético have won just three trophies — of which only two would be considered to be elite silverware: the 2018 UEFA Europa League and the 2021 LaLiga title. That’s compared with the significantly less-funded Sevilla (5), Athletic Club (3) and is only one elite trophy more than Real Sociedad (1) Villarreal (1), Real Betis (1), Valencia (1) in the last 11 years. Let’s leave Spain’s “big two” out of this — Atleti don’t deserve to be compared to them right now.

Simeone’s reputation has been increasingly stained by a stubborn inability to lead his team successfully through their biggest tests. His tactical management has deservedly come under scrutiny, his once world-famous defensive stinginess has evaporated and, as for local bragging rights, there is no question that Atleti’s noisy neighbours have regained the upper hand after he temporarily wrenched power from Real Madrid when he arrived nearly 14 years ago.

Obviously, for anyone — be they journalists, ex-players, ex-coaches, fans or indeed Simeone’s employers — there needs to be nuance involved in assessing his current, diminished, state. It’s not contradictory to suggest that he is both the single most successful, and perhaps important, figure in the entire history of Atlético Madrid, if you consider his achievements as both a player and a coach. Yet, at the same time, he is a Samson whose hair has been shorn and his strength stripped away.

In the two-and-a-half years between January 2012 and May 2014, having inherited an uninspiring and underperforming squad, Simeone won five trophies. This Argentine with his warrior mentality was a blessing for his club, their fans, the owners and — I would fervently argue — Spanish football in general. He became an all-time icon for those who appreciate their football being spiky, stubborn, direct and, above all, winning. Just as the “Makélélé role” became a byword for a specific midfield position, the idea of “Simeone football” became instantly identifiable and unmistakable. At least until the whole thing rusted.

This, honestly, had begun to look like the turnaround season — the fightback, rather than having the feeling of “Simeone’s last stand.” These last few weeks have been so tumultuous for Atleti and their volatile coach. It would be harsh to make fundamental judgements about whether he should remain solely based on that bizarre, barely believable elimination from the UEFA Champions League at the hands of their most hated rivals, Real Madrid, or the series of dropped points in LaLiga which surround that cataclysmic match. I think cracks, and the doubts, run much more deeply than that.

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Jan Oblak says he doesn’t understand UEFA’s explanation after Julian Alvarez’s penalty was ruled-out by VAR in the Champions League shootout vs. Real Madrid.

Every club, no matter how big, how well-resourced, or in-form, will run into stormy water during a season. Everyone needs to accept that even champion outfits will stumble briefly under the pressure of incessant fixtures and injuries, and occasionally will simply be bested on a given day.

That’s not the key point here. This is one of the most expensively-assembled and talented Atlético Madrid squads in their entire history. It would be disappointing for fans, players, staff and owners if they win nothing this season — yes. But in other circumstances that could, and probably would, be viewed as a launchpad — a hopeful indication that special things are about to happen.

If you flip backwards only a matter of weeks, Atleti were still in line to win that fabled Treble which only Barcelona, in Spain, have ever achieved. Favourites to reach the Copa del Rey final after the first leg in Barcelona, powerfully placed in LaLiga (one point off the top and two ahead of Real Madrid who were third), and with a minimal deficit to close after the first match against Los Blancos in the Champions League round of 16 — it truly looked as if everything was coming together sweetly for Atleti.

Now Wednesday dawns with Atleti out of the Champions League, demonstrably out of the title race (even if the arithmetic doesn’t categorically support that), and needing this to win this tantalising match against Spain’s title leaders in order to put things right. Or, alternatively, if they lose, a chance to add further to this emerging disaster.

The very man who became a catalytic typhoon for this club when he arrived to take over midway through yet another dodgy season (in December 2011) by winning the Europa League within five months, is threatening to become a busted flush — in trophy terms at least. What has perpetually saved Simeone — including in 2022 when he admitted “it felt like the end of an era” and “like all of you I could see how badly we were playing I just couldn’t say that in public” — is how his metronomic ability to keep Atleti in LaLiga’s top four has earned the club many, many hundreds of millions of euros. I’m 100% certain that fans feel nothing like as excited by that as club owners do. Supporters want to see their heroes lifting trophies and want to lord it over other clubs. Especially if the other club in your life happens to be Real Madrid and they’ve been rubbing your nose in it forever.

After the latest dropped points at the weekend, 1-1 away to Espanyol, a very pessimistic and gloomy Jan Oblak admitted: “I don’t know what the problem is … on the pitch we don’t show that we want to win, we didn’t deserve more than this. We are far away from the first place in the table and the teams are catching us as well.”

Nevertheless, the fact that Atleti’s close-but-no-cigar consistency in these relatively trophy-barren years has qualified them for FIFA’s new play-thing, the extended Club World Cup means that Simeone could crash out of the Copa del Rey on Wednesday but survive to win the sprawling FIFA club tournament and, thereby, bring Atleti a $125 million windfall. Who at Atleti would be either brave or visionary enough to then say to him: “Yes, that’s all very well … but we want to win leagues and cups!” No one. That’s who.

By the time Wednesday rolls around, we’ll already know whether Real Madrid, who themselves have only lifted this grand old trophy once in the last 11 years, have used their 1-0 advantage over Real Sociedad to reach the final. That opens up the prospect of potentially two more Madrid derbis this season — in Sevilla for the Copa del Rey final on April 26 and, how FIFA must be praying for this, in New Jersey on July 13 in that Club World Cup final.

Over to you Diego Pablo Simeone: have you still got what it takes? If so, time to show it.