Hurricane Kiko has winds up to 145 mph in the Pacific about 1,000 miles away from Hawaii. The major hurricane is expected to steer away from Hawaii but the indirect impacts are still to be determined. 

HONOLULU – Hurricane Kiko, which has rapidly intensified into a Category 4 cyclone over the open Pacific, continues to march westward, which will put the storm near the Hawaiian Islands next week but in a much weakened state.

As of Thursday, Kiko was still over 1,200 miles east-southeast of Hawaii and expected to commence a significant weakening process over the weekend.

Due to error rates associated with forecasting hurricanes, the Big Island did fall underneath the five-day forecast cone, but meteorologists caution that Kiko will be a completely different storm when it approaches the islands.

Several factors, including cool sea surface temperatures, hostile upper-level winds and dry air, will in essence act as a barrier between the hurricane and the islands, only resulting in limited impacts.

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Satellites estimate that sea surface temperatures between the hurricane and the Big Island of Hawaii are in the mid-70s, which is considered cooler than what a cyclone typically needs for strengthening.

Hurricane experts widely consider water temperatures of at least 79 degrees to be warm enough for storm systems to organize and strengthen.

Based on the forecast cone, rough seas and occasional showers look to be nearly a guarantee, with the possibility of increasing impacts if the cyclone were to take a more southern route.

Forecasters and computer models should get a better handle on the synoptic scenario after Hurricane Hunters sample the storm on Sunday.

Kiko is a rather small cyclone, with hurricane-force winds only extending outward 20–30 miles and tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 80 miles, meaning that chances are fairly low that Hawaii will see damaging impacts.

Officials in Hawaii are accustomed to closely monitoring tropical systems, but direct landfalls are rare, primarily because of the sea surface temperatures.

Hurricane Kiko track

(FOX Weather)

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Data from NOAA shows only four major hurricanes with winds of at least 115 mph passing within 50 miles of the 137 Hawaiian Islands.

In August 2021, the remnants of Hurricane Linda passed directly over parts of the state after the system weakened into a non-trackable entity.

The remnants produced heavy rainfall on some islands, with elevated waves on north- and east-facing beaches.

And in 2020, Hurricane Douglas came even closer and triggered the issuance of watches and warnings but still did not make a direct landfall.

It remains to be seen how close Kiko will get to the islands, so for now the National Hurricane Center is just reminding residents to keep a close eye on the forecast.

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